I invite civil, bipartisan discussion to this post.
Most of the people who are reading this post probably do not need to be told the importance of voting. However, in light of two special elections in Iowa since the 2024 election, along with a Supreme Court election in Wisconsin and special elections in Florida both on April 1st, I feel it remains a vitally important topic.
There is one common refrain I have heard from a lot of people over the years, sometimes in person, in news articles, or interviews, and I am sure you have heard it too: My vote won’t make a difference.
This can be a difficult narrative to break because on the surface, it is almost certainly true. For example, in an election to the United States Senate, an entire state is voting for their preferred candidate making it relatively unlikely that any single voter is truly going to be the determining vote in that election. On the other hand, the general sentiment that a vote won’t make a difference is likely to be shared among a population with other common attitudes and the apathy of entire voting blocs absolutely has the ability to swing elections.
Moreover, voter turnout swings dramatically depending on the type and year of the election. Many voters tend to think of voting specifically in major elections – voter turnout is far and away the highest in presidential election years with standard midterm elections in a distant second place. In 2022 1.22 million voters cast a ballot in the gubernatorial race while 1.66 million cast a ballot for the presidential race in 2024. According to the federal register, Iowa has a voting age population of nearly 2.5 million people, meaning over 30% of the eligible population did not vote in recent elections.
Iowa had a special election in 2025 for the 35th Senate District as the incumbent resigned her position to become the Lieutenant Governor. In the election on January 28th, Democrat Mike Zimmer won the seat by a margin of 52% – 48%, taking one seat in the Iowa Senate from Republican control. As President Trump won the vote in that district just two months earlier with a 60% majority, this swing has been touted as a major flip in favor of Democrats.
I want to take an opportunity to look more closely at this election result and see what we can conclude from this election result.
In the most recent general election in Iowa 35th Senate District in November 2022, there were a total of 24,266 voters compared with only 9.308 voters in the special election in January 2025. Although the headline numbers are striking – the seat was won by a Republican with 60% of the vote in 2022 and lost with only 48% of the vote in 2025 – the district also saw a decline in votes of 62%. Voter apathy in special elections is strong, and this was no exception.
According to the Iowa Legislature website, there are approximately 64,000 people in this senate district and according to the U.S. census, 77% of Iowa residents are over 18 years old meaning the voting age population in the district is approximately 49,000 people, yet even in the most recent general election, less than half of those eligible cast a vote. Voter apathy even in a general mid-term election is high.
So, what conclusions can be drawn from the recent elections in Iowa? I do not believe we can make any proclamations about the general mood of the population from these recent special elections. However, I believe we can firmly conclude that votes in special elections carry even more weight than those in a general election on account of the reduced voter turnout in those elections. Voting in special elections is exceptionally important.
With 435 representatives in the United States, each representative has a voting age population of about 575,000 people. Interestingly, one of the biggest arguments against the Constitution during the Convention was the requirement that a district be no smaller 30,000 people; this was considered to be too few representatives to adequately serve their constituents. If we had more representatives, each requiring fewer votes to win office, it may assuage the fear that our singular vote does not matter.
Please always stay informed about elections on all levels and all times; those elected in Presidential Election cycles, mid-terms, and special elections all have the same power to affect change.
Thank you.
Sources:
Federal Register :: Estimates of the Voting Age Population for 2021
2024 United States presidential election in Iowa – Wikipedia
2022 Iowa elections – Wikipedia
1787: Centinel, Letter I (Pamphlet) | Online Library of Liberty
Screenshot 2025-02-24 083359.png (2067×790)
Iowa Democrats flip Senate seat in special election
U.S. Census Bureau QuickFacts: Iowa
https://iowa-legis.maps.arcgis.com/apps/mapviewer/index.html
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